Cox Automotive Forecast: US Auto Sales Expected to Finish First Half Higher by 2.9%, In Line with Expectations for Slow Growth
- June's new-vehicle sales pace is forecast to finish near 16.0 million, up 0.1 million from May's 15.9 million pace but down 0.1 million from last June's 16.1 million level.
- First-half sales volume is forecast to increase by 2.9% year over year, thanks partly to strong results from Toyota, Honda and Ford; Stellantis and Tesla tumble.
- Cox Automotive holds its full-year forecast steady at 15.7 million, with the sales pace through the first half expected to be 15.6 million, up from 15.4 million in the first half of 2023.
ATLANTA, June 25, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Cox Automotive forecasts U.S. new-vehicle sales in June to show mild improvement over last year, but high prices and interest rates continue to hinder a stronger market. In June, the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or sales pace, is expected to finish near 16.0 million. This is down slightly from last June's 16.1 million level and a modest uptick from last month's 15.9 million pace.
According to Cox Automotive's Kelley Blue Book estimates, new-vehicle sales volume through the first half of 2024 is forecast to increase by nearly 225,000 units compared to the first half of 2023 – an increase of 2.9%. The sales pace through the first half is expected to be 15.6 million, up from 15.4 million in the first half of 2023.
Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, noted: "Sales have been relatively strong over the last few months thanks in large part to lower prices. Incentives are rising, which are helping vehicle buyers, but only somewhat. The expectation of falling prices coupled with rising uncertainty around interest rate policies may lead some vehicle buyers to wait."
Steady Full-Year Forecast Amid Growing Uncertainty
With expectations of uncertainty in the second half of 2024, Cox Automotive is holding its full-year new-vehicle sales forecast steady at 15.7 million, a gain of 1.3% from 2023, when sales finished at 15.5 million. This increase is aligned with the slow growth expected in 2024. Fleet sales are forecast to finish the year at 2.9 million, up from 2.8 million in 2023. Full-year retail sales are forecast to increase from 12.8 million in 2024 to 12.7 million in 2023.
"We remain concerned that the second half of the year cannot maintain the growth we've seen so far," said Chesbrough. "Adding to the uncertainty in the market, many consumers likely believe things will be better, or at least more certain, after the November election, which adds to the hesitancy in buying. We still expect 2024 to finish a little better than 2023 – supported by more discounting and better prices, but we will be fighting an uncertain economic outlook."
GM Remains on Top; Toyota Volume Increases
General Motors is forecast to remain the top automaker in U.S. new-vehicle sales through the first half of 2024. However, GM sales are forecast to drop 0.1% compared to the first half of 2023. Toyota, which continues to operate with very lean new-vehicle supply, will remain No. 2 after delivering a sizable 16.3% first-half year-over-year gain. Ford and Hyundai are on track to remain the No. 3 and No. 4 automakers, respectively.
Notably, Honda Motor Company – combined Honda and Acura brand sales – is forecast to move ahead of Stellantis as the fifth largest automaker by sales. With stronger inventory and popular new models, Honda is expected to post a 10.8% volume increase in the first half, compared to a 16.5% decrease for Stellantis in the same period.
June 2024 U.S. New-Vehicle Sales Forecast
Sales Forecast1 |
Market Share |
|||||||
Segment |
Jun-24 |
Jun-23 |
May-24 |
YOY% |
MOM% |
Jun-24 |
May-24 |
MOM |
Mid-Size Car |
75,000 |
83,294 |
76,786 |
-10.0 % |
-2.3 % |
5.4 % |
5.3 % |
0.1 % |
Compact Car |
105,000 |
94,219 |
110,671 |
11.4 % |
-5.1 % |
7.6 % |
7.7 % |
-0.1 % |
Compact SUV/Crossover |
235,000 |
225,156 |
244,294 |
4.4 % |
-3.8 % |
16.9 % |
16.9 % |
0.0 % |
Full-Size Pickup Truck |
190,000 |
196,024 |
196,484 |
-3.1 % |
-3.3 % |
13.7 % |
13.6 % |
0.1 % |
Mid-Size SUV/Crossover |
225,000 |
222,217 |
233,167 |
1.3 % |
-3.5 % |
16.2 % |
16.1 % |
0.1 % |
Other Segments |
558,000 |
560,955 |
584,639 |
-0.5 % |
-4.6 % |
40.2 % |
40.4 % |
-0.2 % |
Grand Totall2 |
1,388,000 |
1,381,865 |
1,446,041 |
0.4 % |
-4.0 % |
|||
1 Cox Automotive Industry Insights data |
Q2 2024 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast1
OEM |
Q2 2023 |
Q1 2024 |
Q2 2024 |
versus |
YTD 2023 |
YTD 2024 |
versus |
YTD Share |
General Motors |
689,393 |
590,055 |
697,804 |
1.2 % |
1,288,581 |
1,287,859 |
-0.1 % |
16.2 % |
Toyota |
568,963 |
565,097 |
642,902 |
13.0 % |
1,038,521 |
1,207,999 |
16.3 % |
15.2 % |
Ford |
527,905 |
504,815 |
551,527 |
4.5 % |
999,766 |
1,056,342 |
5.7 % |
13.3 % |
Hyundai |
437,826 |
379,203 |
449,315 |
2.6 % |
820,180 |
828,518 |
1.0 % |
10.4 % |
Honda |
347,025 |
333,824 |
365,719 |
5.4 % |
631,532 |
699,543 |
10.8 % |
8.8 % |
Stellantis |
434,648 |
332,541 |
337,906 |
-22.3 % |
802,975 |
670,447 |
-16.5 % |
8.5 % |
Nissan Mitsu |
268,955 |
281,138 |
256,079 |
-4.8 % |
525,711 |
537,217 |
2.2 % |
6.8 % |
VW |
151,411 |
139,756 |
174,748 |
15.4 % |
289,467 |
314,504 |
8.6 % |
4.0 % |
Subaru |
160,713 |
152,996 |
171,397 |
6.6 % |
304,089 |
324,393 |
6.7 % |
4.1 % |
Tesla |
175,262 |
140,187 |
148,462 |
-15.3 % |
336,892 |
288,649 |
-14.3 % |
3.6 % |
Mazda |
95,399 |
100,103 |
100,071 |
4.9 % |
183,783 |
200,174 |
8.9 % |
2.5 % |
BMW |
95,533 |
90,844 |
96,436 |
0.9 % |
185,283 |
187,280 |
1.1 % |
2.4 % |
Mercedes-Benz |
96,019 |
82,623 |
88,486 |
-7.8 % |
171,720 |
171,109 |
-0.4 % |
2.2 % |
Nation2 |
4,117,571 |
3,768,960 |
4,160,657 |
1.0 % |
7,705,381 |
7,929,617 |
2.9 % |
100.0 % |
1 Cox Automotive Industry Insights data |
All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate. There are 26 selling days this June, which is the same as last year and last month. There were 154 selling days in H1 2023 and H1 2024.
About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world's largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets. The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a portfolio of industry-leading brands that include Autotrader®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®, Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™, CentralDispatch® and FleetNet America®. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately owned, Atlanta-based company with $22 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.
SOURCE Cox Automotive
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