Services PMI® at 49.4%; April 2024 Services ISM® Report On Business®

Business Activity Index at 50.9%; New Orders Index at 52.2%; Employment Index at 45.9%; Supplier Deliveries Index at 48.5%

TEMPE, Ariz., May 3, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Economic activity in the services sector contracted in April for the first time since December 2022, ending a period of 15 consecutive months of growth, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM^® Report On Business^®. The Services PMI^® registered 49.4 percent; it indicated sector expansion in 45 of the previous 47 months.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) Services Business Survey Committee: "In April, the Services PMI^® registered 49.4 percent, 2 percentage points lower than March's reading of 51.4 percent. The composite index indicated contraction in April after 15 consecutive months of growth since a reading of 49 percent in December 2022, the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 50.9 percent in April, which is 6.5 percentage points lower than the 57.4 percent recorded in March. The New Orders Index expanded in April for the 16th consecutive month after contracting in December 2022 for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 52.2 percent is 2.2 percentage points lower than the March reading of 54.4 percent. The Employment Index contracted for the fourth time in five months with a reading of 45.9 percent, a 2.6-percentage point decrease compared to the 48.5 percent recorded in March.

"The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 48.5 percent, 3.1 percentage points higher than the 45.4 percent recorded in March. The index contracted for the third straight month — indicating that supplier delivery performance was faster — after one month in expansion (or 'slower') territory in January. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM^® Report On Business^® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

"The Prices Index registered 59.2 percent in April, a 5.8-percentage point increase from March's reading of 53.4 percent. The Inventories Index grew in April after four previous months of contraction, registering 53.7 percent, an increase of 8.1 percentage points from March's figure of 45.6 percent. The Inventory Sentiment Index (62.9 percent, up 7.2 percentage points from March's reading of 55.7 percent) expanded for the 12th consecutive month. The Backlog of Orders Index grew in April after contracting in March, registering 51.1 percent, a 6.3-percentage point increase compared to the March reading of 44.8 percent.

"Twelve industries reported growth in April. The Services PMI^® — through 15 consecutive months of growth after a single month of contraction in December 2022 and a prior 30-month period of expansion — had been indicating sustained growth for the sector. But the reading of under 50 percent in April reflects month-over-month contraction."

Nieves continues, "The decline in the composite index in April is a result of lower business activity, slower new orders growth, faster supplier deliveries and the continued contraction in employment. Survey respondents indicated that overall business is generally slowing, with rates varying by company and industry. Employment challenges continue to be primarily due to difficulties in backfilling positions and/or controlling labor expenses. The majority of respondents indicate that inflation and geopolitical issues remain concerns."

INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE
The 12 services industries reporting growth in April — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Construction; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Utilities; Mining; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; Public Administration; and Wholesale Trade. The six industries reporting a decrease in the month of April — listed in order — are: Other Services; Information; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Transportation & Warehousing.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING

• "Steady improvement toward lower costs in food and beverages; however, avian bird flu may affect pricing moving forward. Already seeing increases in chicken and eggs. In the technology space, prices are not decreasing but holding steady." [Accommodation & Food Services]
• "Movie production is recovering, which should increase volume in movie theaters in the second half of 2024." [Arts, Entertainment & Recreation]
• "Although it varies by global region, we're starting to see market softening in terms of price and lead time stability. That bidders are providing reasonable bid validities is an indication that much of the supply chain is coming into supply and demand equilibrium. Electrical equipment remains the outlier." [Construction]
• "Inflation is raising our unit cost on products and services when compared to last year's expenditures." [Public Administration]
• "Continue to be challenged with inflationary pressure through labor and service cost increases, but we are working hard at finding utilization savings to offset where possible." [Health Care & Social Assistance]
• "Business remains soft." [Information]
• "We are still experiencing supply chain challenges with increased costs of raw materials, particularly chemicals and their containers, as well as higher U.S. and overseas freight transportation costs. A containers shortage has increased costs and slowed down the supply chain." [Management of Companies & Support Services]
• "Steady demand has been favorable during this traditionally slower season. Pricing is stable and the supply chain is strong. Employee recruitment and retention has been a challenge in some areas; however, the situation isn't critical." [Retail Trade]
• "Construction, administrative and technical/scientific labor are in high demand. Long lead times for brass plumbing fittings and electrical equipment and components." [Utilities]
• "The overall market has definitely slowed down. Our business is up year over year and month over month; based on our advanced analytics, we know that growth is coming from new customers. This means we are taking market share from our competitors." [Wholesale Trade]

Services ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for the Business Activity, New Orders, Employment and Prices indexes. Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment and Inventories indexes.
*Number of months moving in current direction.

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE, AND IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price
Caustic Soda; Construction Contractors (4); Copper Wire (2); Diesel Fuel (2); Food and Beverages; Fuel (3); Gasoline (3); Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) Equipment (3); Labor (41); Labor — Technology and Web Related; Office Supplies; Oriented Strand Board (OSB); Paper; Software Maintenance; and Unleaded Fuel (2).

Commodities Down in Price
Propane.

Commodities in Short Supply
Brass Fittings; Electrical Components (4); Electrical Equipment (2); Labor (3); Switchgear (2); and Transformers.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

APRIL 2024 SERVICES INDEX SUMMARIES

Services PMI^®
In April, the Services PMI^® registered 49.4 percent, a 2-percentage point decrease compared to the March reading of 51.4 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates it is generally contracting.

A Services PMI^® above 49 percent, over time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the April Services PMI^® indicates the overall economy is growing for the 16th consecutive month. Nieves says, "The past relationship between the Services PMI^® and the overall economy indicates that the Services PMI^® for April (49.4 percent) corresponds to a 0.2-percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP) on an annualized basis."

SERVICES PMI^® HISTORY

Business Activity
ISM^®'s Business Activity Index registered 50.9 percent in April, 6.5 percentage points lower than the 57.4 percent recorded in March, indicating growth for the 47th consecutive month. The Business Activity Index has been in expansion territory since recovering from its coronavirus pandemic lows. Comments from respondents include: "Lower volume of work orders" and "Fewer elective surgeries."

The 13 industries reporting an increase in business activity for the month of April — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Finance & Insurance; Mining; Wholesale Trade; Utilities; Educational Services; Public Administration; Retail Trade; Construction; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Transportation & Warehousing. The four industries reporting a decrease in business activity for the month of April are: Other Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Information.

New Orders
ISM^®'s New Orders Index registered 52.2 percent in April, 2.2 percentage points lower than the reading of 54.4 percent registered in March. The index indicated expansion for the 16th consecutive month after contracting in December 2022, ending a string of 30 consecutive months of growth. Comments from respondents include: "Reduced orders and prospect conversions" and "Sales leads down."

The 12 industries reporting an increase in new orders for the month of April — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Wholesale Trade; Construction; Mining; Utilities; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Finance & Insurance; Retail Trade; Educational Services; Public Administration; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The three industries reporting a decrease in new orders for the month of April are: Other Services; Information; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

Employment
Employment activity in the services sector contracted in April for the fourth time in five months, preceded by six consecutive months of growth from June to November. The Employment Index registered 45.9 percent, down 2.6 percentage points from the March figure of 48.5 percent. Comments from respondents include: "Delayed hiring due to tightness in the labor market" and "Hiring freeze in place; not backfilling positions after people were 'RIFed' (reduction in force), retired, or left our organization."

The five industries reporting an increase in employment in April are: Accommodation & Food Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Construction; Mining; and Utilities. The 10 industries reporting a decrease in employment in April — listed in order — are: Other Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Public Administration; Transportation & Warehousing; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services.

Supplier Deliveries
In April, the Supplier Deliveries Index indicated faster performance for the third consecutive month after a single month of slower performance preceded by three consecutive months of faster performance. The index registered 48.5 percent, up 3.1 percentage points from the 45.4 percent recorded in March. The index has been in contraction (or "faster") territory in 13 of the last 15 months. A reading above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, while a reading below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries. Comments from respondents include: "International impacts from Panama Canal drought, Red Sea and Suez Canal turmoil and Baltimore's Key Bridge collapse — closely monitoring logistics" and "Slight uptick in normalizing delivery times."

The five industries reporting slower deliveries in April are: Retail Trade; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Construction; and Utilities. The six industries reporting faster supplier deliveries for the month of April — listed in order — are: Wholesale Trade; Mining; Accommodation & Food Services; Information; Transportation & Warehousing; and Public Administration. Seven industries reported no change in April.

Inventories
The Inventories Index grew in April following four consecutive months of contraction. The reading of 53.7 percent was an 8.1-percentage point increase compared to the 45.6 percent reported in March. Of the total respondents in April, 48 percent indicated they do not have inventories or do not measure them. Comments from respondents include: "Slightly higher levels in preparation of hurricane season to have adequate supplies needed for a disaster response" and "Tend to bulk up inventory at the end of the first quarter and into the second quarter, as we hit demand increases throughout the spring and summer."

The six industries reporting an increase in inventories in April — in the following order — are: Retail Trade; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Transportation & Warehousing; Public Administration; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Wholesale Trade. The seven industries reporting a decrease in inventories in April, in order, are: Mining; Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Utilities.

Prices
Prices paid by services organizations for materials and services increased in April for the 83rd consecutive month. The Prices Index registered 59.2 percent, 5.8 percentage points higher than the 53.4 percent registered in March. The April reading is the 22nd in a row near or below 70 percent (including 12 of the last 13 months at or below 60 percent), following 10 straight months of readings near or above 80 percent from September 2021 to June 2022.

Fourteen services industries reported an increase in prices paid during the month of April, in the following order: Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; Other Services; Retail Trade; Accommodation & Food Services; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Wholesale Trade; Information; Utilities; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. No industry reported a decrease in prices for the month of April.

NOTE: Commodities reported as up in price and down in price are listed in the commodities section of this report.

Backlog of Orders
The ISM^® Services Backlog of Orders Index grew in April after a contraction in March, preceded by two consecutive months of expansion and two months of contraction before that. The index reading of 51.1 percent is 6.3 percentage points higher than the 44.8 percent reported in March. Of the total respondents in April, 45 percent indicated they do not measure backlog of orders. Respondent comments include: "No backlog; supply is fine" and "Fewer backlogs for many areas, but vehicles and heavy equipment still impacted."

The nine industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in April, in order, are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Educational Services; Finance & Insurance; Construction; Transportation & Warehousing; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The six industries reporting a decrease in order backlogs in April — in the following order — are: Other Services; Information; Mining; Public Administration; Wholesale Trade; and Health Care & Social Assistance.

New Export Orders
Orders and requests for services and other non-manufacturing activities to be provided outside of the U.S. by domestically based companies decreased in April after expanding for 11 of the previous 12 months, with the lone contraction in October. The New Export Orders Index registered 47.9 percent, a 4.8-percentage point decrease from the 52.7 percent reported in March. Of the total respondents in April, 74 percent indicated they do not perform, or do not separately measure, orders for work outside of the U.S.

The three industries reporting an increase in new export orders in April are: Transportation & Warehousing; Utilities; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The three industries reporting a decrease in new export orders in April are: Retail Trade; Information; and Wholesale Trade. Twelve industries reported no change in new export orders in April.

Imports
The Imports Index expanded at a faster rate in April, registering 53.6 percent, 1.2 percentage points higher than March's reading of 52.4 percent. The index has indicated expansion in 17 of the last 20 months, with contractions in March and December 2023 and an "unchanged" status (a reading of 50 percent) in May. Sixty-nine percent of respondents reported that they do not use, or do not track the use of, imported materials.

The seven industries reporting an increase in imports for the month of April, in order, are: Accommodation & Food Services; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Wholesale Trade; and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services. The two industries reporting a decrease in imports in April are: Other Services; and Health Care & Social Assistance. Nine industries reported no change in imports in April.

Inventory Sentiment
The ISM^® Services Inventory Sentiment Index grew for the 12th consecutive month in April after one month of contraction in April 2023, preceded by four consecutive months of growth and four months of contraction from August to November 2022. The index registered 62.9 percent, a 7.2-percentage point increase from March's figure of 55.7 percent. This reading indicates that respondents feel their inventories are too high when correlated to business activity levels.

The 11 industries reporting sentiment that their inventories were too high in April — listed in order — are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Other Services; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Mining; Utilities; Information; Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Construction. The only industry reporting a feeling that their inventories were too low in April is Transportation & Warehousing. Six industries indicated no change in inventory sentiment in April.

About This Report
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report's information reflects the entire U.S., while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of April 2024.

The data presented herein is obtained from a survey of supply executives in the services sector based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. ISM^® makes no representation, other than that stated within this release, regarding the individual company data collection procedures. The data should be compared to all other economic data sources when used in decision-making.

Data and Method of Presentation
The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® (formerly the Non-Manufacturing ISM^® Report On Business^®) is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Membership of the Services Business Survey Committee (formerly Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee) is diversified by NAICS, based on each industry's contribution to gross domestic product (GDP). The Services Business Survey Committee responses are divided into the following NAICS code categories: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Utilities; Construction; Wholesale Trade; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Finance & Insurance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Educational Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; and Other Services (services such as Equipment & Machinery Repairing; Promoting or Administering Religious Activities; Grantmaking; Advocacy; and Providing Dry-Cleaning & Laundry Services, Personal Care Services, Death Care Services, Pet Care Services, Photofinishing Services, Temporary Parking Services, and Dating Services). The data are weighted based on each industry's contribution to GDP. According to BEA estimates (the average of the fourth quarter 2022 GDP estimate and the GDP estimates for first, second, and third quarter 2023, as released on December 21, 2023), the six largest services sectors are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Information; and Finance & Insurance.

Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries), this report shows the percentage reporting each response and the diffusion index. Responses represent raw data and are never changed. Data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. All seasonal adjustment factors are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them. The remaining indexes have not indicated significant seasonality.

The Services PMI^® is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries. Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction of change and the scope of change. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the services economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Supplier Deliveries is an exception. A Supplier Deliveries Index above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries and below 50 percent indicates faster deliveries.

A Services PMI^® above 49 percent, over time, indicates that the overall economy, or gross domestic product (GDP), is generally expanding; below 49 percent, it is generally declining. The distance from 50 percent or 49 percent is indicative of the strength of the expansion or decline.

The Services ISM^® Report On Business^® survey is sent out to Services Business Survey Committee respondents the first part of each month. Respondents are asked to ONLY report on U.S. operations for the current month. ISM^® receives survey responses throughout most of any given month, with the majority of respondents generally waiting until late in the month to submit responses to give the most accurate picture of current business activity. ISM^® then compiles the report for release on the third business day of the following month.

The industries reporting growth, as indicated in the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® monthly report, are listed in the order of most growth to least growth. For the industries reporting contraction or decreases, those are listed in the order of the highest level of contraction/decrease to the least level of contraction/decrease.

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About Institute for Supply Management^®
Institute for Supply Management^® (ISM^®) is the first and leading not-for-profit professional supply management organization worldwide. Its community of more than 50,000 in more than 100 countries manage about US$1 trillion in corporate and government supply chain procurement annually. Founded in 1915 by practitioners, ISM is committed to advancing the practice of supply management to drive value and competitive advantage for its members, contributing to a prosperous and sustainable world. ISM empowers and leads the profession through the ISM^® Report On Business^®, its highly-regarded certification and training programs, corporate services, events, and assessments. The ISM^® Report On Business^®, Manufacturing, Services, and Hospital, are three of the most reliable economic indicators available, providing guidance to supply management professionals, economists, analysts, and 9government and business leaders. For more information, please visit: www.ismworld.org.

The full text version of the Services ISM^® Report On Business^® is posted on ISM^®'s website at www.ismrob.org on the third business day* of every month after 10:00 a.m. ET. The one exception is in January, the report is released on the fourth business day of the month.

The next Services ISM^® Report On Business^® featuring May 2024 data will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday, June 5, 2024.

*Unless the New York Stock Exchange is closed.

SOURCE Institute for Supply Management